Should we search for the bottom or flee? Arca Information Chief analyzes 6 major reasons for the dec
Jeff Dorman, Chief Information Officer of Arca, a digital asset management company, analyzed six downward narratives in the current market to evaluate whether these bearish factors are creating buying opportunities for investors or warning signs.
Macroeconomics
The macro signal on Friday showed a very clear short-term selling signal. The yield of 10-year US treasury bond bonds fell by 40 basis points, oil prices fell sharply, stock markets continued to fall, and the VIX index soared by 25% on Friday. But in the long run, VIX usually falls back, the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates in September, and this year is still an election year.
Trading suggestion: Buy this dip.
Jump Trading Selling
Jump Trading may have bought put options before selling? More than 90% of ETH is being sold on the exchange. Currently, out of the 550 million dollars in their wallet, 510 million dollars are stablecoins. Interestingly, they returned the stablecoins to their own wallets instead of directly cashing them out on the exchange.
Trading suggestion: Buy this dip.
ETF fund flow
Unfortunately, the market does not have an advantage in this area and will be affected by these capital flows this year. Bitcoin's net outflow on Friday was $237 million, while Ethereum's fund flow remained neutral. The new ETF has dealt a short-term blow to the cryptocurrency market, but in the long run, it is a pain that must be endured.
Trading advice: No advantage/no trading.
Hejinli's poll rises
He Jinli's support for Trump has risen in the poll. This is not good for cryptocurrency. Even though the Democratic Party is less hostile to cryptocurrency, the entire stock market and cryptocurrency market are more inclined to support Trump to win.
Trading advice: Sell until the situation reverses.
The Middle East war is heating up
In the long run, this is not very important. It has never really affected the market. Only macro traders who engage in short-term operations will trade such news. And oil prices don't take this seriously.
Trading suggestion: Buy this dip.
Supply side
The allocation of Mt Gox has been basically completed, and now it is Genesis' turn to allocate ETH, BTC, and SOL. The selling pressure of grayscale seems to have eased, and the cash distribution of FTX is coming soon.
Trading advice: Neutral - There is nothing to worry about in actual capital flows, but the risk of supply being digested in advance still exists.
Overall, it seems that there are more reasons to buy than reasons to sell. TON and ONDO are the only tokens I have been following that have maintained positive performance since their peak on March 13th. Many tokens have now fallen 50-75% from their highs, and the performance of most tokens so far this year has also been negative. If you were once optimistic about the market, you should still remain optimistic now.
